The Mastermind — RedShift Labs

The first meeting

A free introduction to decision science.

We start with cognitive tests. These are challenging tests, designed to help you see strengths and weaknesses in your own decision-making process. Then I present findings from the world of decision science and show how you can improve your decision quality. You will find the session well worth the free price of admission.

Type-1 vs type-2 errors
Confidence intervals
Bayesian logic
Relative vs absolute risk
Quantitative decision frameworks
Estimation and heuristics
Group decision dynamics
Prioritization
Where most decisions go wrong
Why men and women perform differently
Thinking in bets
How to use AI to aid decisionmaking

“This is world-class innovation.”

— Thomas D. Zweifel, founder, Leaders Academy Online

“I’ve been Executive Director of a major electric power company. If I had had access to David’s methods, the company would have been even bigger. David opened up a world of decision science I didn’t know existed. This introduction event was just a taste of what’s possible.”

— Alexander Chikunov, former top executive

The program

Decisions are where all the leverage is.

My goal is to make these meetings a very good use of your time and pay off in millions of dollars saved or made.

Monthly meeting

We meet once a month for 60 to 90 minutes to work through my curriculum and discuss decisions people need to make. All meetings are recorded and available on the private platform.

One-on-one meetings

Each month, you get an hour with me to dig into your issues and work through them. You’re welcome to include me in meetings or bring your team or board members.

Ad-hoc decision meetings

If you have a particular decision to make, you call a meeting and show your decision framework. Members show up, give feedback, and discuss. Then there’s a silent vote, and you hear why people voted the way they did.

Special guests

Occasionally I invite a special guest — academic researchers, CEOs, authors from the decision-science community — to speak and have a conversation with us.

The curriculum

What we work through, month by month.

Worldview exercisesComplex adaptive systemsEcosystemsStatistical literacyCognitive diversityUncertainty vs riskDecisionmaking under uncertaintyGuestimatingExpected valueTrack your decisionsBayesian reasoningThe 70 percent failure ruleMechanism designPretotypingPareto distributionsSimplificationHow to fix board meetingsThe role of luck in businessThe halo effectInternal prediction marketsAutomating workflowsThinking in betsEight-ball vs nine-ballWhen to double down, when to quitDoing experimentsBayesian calibrationSpreadsheet checkupNever go with your gutOverconfidenceOverprecisionType 1 and type 2 errorsFoxes and hedgehogsPsychographic testsMonte-Carlo simulationsDashboards and dataConvexityMeasuring demand signalsAmazon’s decision frameworkNet Promoter Score and other mythsMarketing automationKanban!Extreme valuePerspective takingTactical empathyReady, fire, aim — speed winsCynefin and uncertainty frameworksMetadata and supply vs pull chainAtomic habitsProject failure ratesSystem 1 and system 2Portfolio optimizationBeyond budgetingMean reversionEmployee risk takingHow to measure anythingDecision frameworksHeuristicsCost/benefit vs precautionFlat management structuresProbability managementDecision tool trainingAdversarial collaborationCase studiesAcquisitionsSystemanticsSkeptics vs promotersSkeptical empiricismDynamic portfolio managementHow do you motivate employees?

Questions

Frequently asked questions.

What, exactly, do I get?

You get a monthly 60–90-minute group meeting, plus an extra hour of consultation, access to the online platform, and the ability to ask the group for a vote on a big decision. All the meetings are recorded and available on the platform, so you can watch or rewatch them any time.

How much does it cost?

If we could track it, I’d be happy to just charge ten percent of the money you make or save using the principles and connections from the program. But I can’t track the opportunities you pass up, so I charge per month. The program starts with three months for $6,000. There is no initiation fee. After three months, you can pay $2,500 per month or $6,000 per quarter.

What is the group decision part?

If you have an important decision to make, contact me and I’ll set it up so you can get it out to the group for feedback.

Can I get clients from the group?

You must be able to contribute to the group, not take from it. This is not for vendors. You need to show in an interview that you’ll be a good fit. That said, participants are more than welcome to get to know each other and do any business together they like.

Will you have guest speakers?

Once in a while, I plan to bring people in from the decision-science community and other places. They may be academic researchers or CEOs of companies or authors. There might be 2–3 of these in a year.

Can my team join with me?

Sure, as long as you aren’t connecting individually. You could set up in a conference room and join the meetings as a group, yes.

Is there any kind of guarantee?

If you’re not getting your money’s worth, just drop out and don’t pay. However, the program is not designed to be profitable for you on a month-to-month basis. You should be able to look back at the end of the year and see that it saved or made you several times what you paid. If I can save you from making one big mistake per year or grabbing one unseen opportunity, it will more than pay for itself. So give it at least six months before you decide.

What if I can’t make a meeting?

All meetings are recorded and on the private platform, so you can watch or rewatch any of them any time. You’re also more than welcome to send someone you trust in your place.

What about that extra hour per month?

It is for you to use as you see fit. Often, you’ll want to implement something we talked about, like a prediction market or Kanban or another system. I give you that hour for follow-up coaching. It can be with your team rather than you personally. This is coaching only; I won’t have any deliverables. My goal is to give you the right frameworks and help you find the right resources to execute something we discuss.

How long does the group last?

In theory, it could run for years. I won’t run out of provocative, innovative materials to present and work on. In practice, I expect people to go for one year and then come back for a second year. Beyond that, we can see what the group wants.

What about consulting?

I do consulting as well. Consulting is where I have deliverables. We can discuss it according to your needs.

If I’m willing to pay, will you accept me in the group?

No, you have to qualify and be a good fit for the group, and you can’t be a direct competitor of someone already in the group. Be sure to get in touch and talk with me so we can see whether we’re a fit for each other.

Is there a maximum in the group?

I’m shooting for 8–10 participants. I won’t accept direct competitors. Members should be within a few time zones of each other, so I run separate regional groups as demand fills them.

Better decisions = better performance.